Sudan experts have long feared the eruption of violence between troops loyal to Sudan’s de facto military ruler Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemeti, a former warlord who governs the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which grew from deadly militia operating in Darfur and were responsible for the rape and massacre of pro-democracy protesters.
As of Tuesday, the violence had killed at least 185 people. Three people in the capital Khartoum told Foreign Policy that they had been sheltering over the weekend during a blackout while sounds of gunfire and airstrikes continued in some parts of the city, including direct hits on civilian planes at the capital’s international airport. Local reports suggest clashes have spread to the nation’s borders with Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The personal rivalry hinges on a framework agreement signed Dec. 5, which called for the RSF’s absorption into the army. The Sudanese Armed Forces want the process to take two years, while the RSF wants it to take 10 years. A finalized agreement was originally scheduled to be reached by April 1, with a target of having a new civilian government in place by April 11, yet the leaders repeatedly clashed over the terms.
There were arguments over elevating Hemeti to Burhan’s equal within the army, which unnerved Islamists in Sudan, whom Burhan had begun to tactically reincorporate into the Sudanese government.
Both generals are fighting to stay in power, hiding behind a facade of pro-democracy statements, after partnering to lead Sudan’s October 2021 coup. “Hemeti believes that he can bribe the [Transitional Sovereignty Council] and buy his way into power if he supports the transition,” said Ahmed T. el-Gaili, a Sudanese lawyer. “Even in this crisis, he has been presenting himself as a victim because of his support for the transition.”
The RSF has said it was “forced to make an adequate response” after “the Sudanese Armed Forces’ unprovoked attack on our camp in Soba.” Incendiary language from both camps suggests the violence won’t end soon despite the Sudanese army’s 120,000 to 200,000 fighters vastly outnumbering the RSF’s estimated 30,000 to 100,000. Hemeti told Al Jazeera that Burhan will either be brought to justice or “die like a dog.” In turn, Burhan ordered the RSF, which he calls a “rebellious group,” to be dissolved.
Placing a unified army under civilian authority is a key demand of pro-democracy groups. But many Sudanese political observers say the process was rushed by international mediators eager to see a signed agreement, which only heightened tensions. For Sudanese pro-democracy groups, the U.S. and U.N. mediators legitimized army rule and allowed “men with guns” to negotiate the country’s democratic future. “In a post-war scenario, both of these individuals have no place in Sudan’s political or military future,” said el-Gaili.
As Colum Lynch and FP’s Robbie Gramer reported in 2021, Sudan’s generals have in the past shown little deference to the United States’ envoys, launching their military coup within hours of then-regional envoy Jeffrey Feltman’s meeting with Burhan.
Many analysts argue that the Biden administration needs a radical rethink on how to broker peace in Sudan. “These generals are not reformists who can be relied upon to usher in a civilian democratic transition,” said Kholood Khair, managing partner at Insight Strategy Partners, a Khartoum-based think tank. “They are nakedly ambitious generals who behave in bad faith, and therefore the types of approaches that are required are going to be vastly different than the ones that have been employed so far.”
Building on Ethiopia’s African Union-brokered peace deal, a breakthrough in Sudan will require the involvement of regional powers. Most Sudanese analysts agree it would mean the United States working with like-minded allies as well as Gulf powers, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which hold greater sway. Hemeti is perceived to be aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while Burhan is seen as an ally of Egypt.
There are signs that this is happening. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday that he had consulted the Emirati and Saudi foreign ministers, who forged a consensus that both generals should “immediately end hostilities without pre-condition,” Blinken said in a statement. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an eight-nation regional bloc of which Sudan is a member, announced it would send the presidents of Kenya, Djibouti, and South Sudan to mediate.
“I was informed that Russia had tried to convince the Sudan armed forces to come to the negotiating table, but the Sudan armed forces had refused and so this is quite clearly a fight to the death between Burhan and Hemeti, which is quite dangerous to all,” said Khair, noting that Egypt could be drawn into the conflict, which would destabilize the region. Inflaming tensions further, the RSF released a video of captured Egyptian forces carrying out exercises in Sudan. Political observers suspect they were targeted by the RSF over Egypt’s support of Burhan and the Sudanese military.
Ultimately, it is the Sudanese public who are suffering from heavily armed political deadlock. The RSF are reportedly looting buildings. The Sudanese army continues to kill pro-democracy protesters with impunity. Prices for bread and fuel have skyrocketed. Chad—whose military government is itself hanging by a thread—has closed its border with Sudan.
Sudanese analysts warn that the country is now heading toward an all-out civil war. Burhan’s army controls around 250 vital companies in the Sudanese economy. Meanwhile, Hemeti’s wealth stems from the country’s gold mines, and he is perceived to be backed by Russia. He returned from a Moscow trip last February raising support for a Russian naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast. As the situation escalates, high-level diplomacy involving key Arab states may be the only way out.
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