THE GATHERING STORM

By Stravon

Ukraine

As the Pact of the Mecca Three is poised to gather momentum, STRAVON s eyes turn, in
the heels of CIA Director s mission to Moscow, to the static battle line in Ukraine. A lot
there depends on British conduct. London masters as no other the art of brinkmanship.
Time is coming to give peace a new try and the FCOffice possesses specific know-how
and carries certain responsibilities. In London they realize by now that a repetition of a
Crimean war style outcome is this time not in the books. For all social pressure within
Russia, no change in the resolve of the Russian state apparatus to carry on war effort in
the plains of eastern Ukraine is palpable. Instead, it is in western Europe, in France and
Germany that the social fabric is being weakening to the benefit of populist political
forces. Presumably, nobody beyond the old continent’s shoreline, toys with the idea of
eroding the foundation of continental political harmony, that is the European Union. On
the other hand, to be sure, Russia will not succeed in their maximalist goals, e.g.
withdrawal without further fight of Kiev s military forces from the still contested part of
Donbas. It might be opportune to revamp peace initiatives, be it involving political third
parties, like India, be it by coopting ecclesiastical figures from within the world of
Orthodoxy. It is realistic to assume that Russia, out of the static war theater, edges
toward a presentable military success against which the collective West will be left with
few options other than to perilously escalate or to come in terms.

Balkans

The coalition οf Croatia and Albania, two NATO member countries, with Kosovo, a NATO
protectorate, technically the trilateral security cooperationMOU of Tirana (March 2025),
does not reinforce sense of stability in the Balkans. Τhis initiative signals an
unnecessary posturing against Serbia (and latently against Republic of North
Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia s Republika Srpska), with Croatia aspiring to act as
a benevolent sherpa, in the line of Central European predilections, for the two state
structures of the Albanian nation. This is perhaps the most consequential move in the
Western Balkans since the Thessaloniki June 2003 Agenda charting the way towards
accession to the EU. The move is viewed in Belgrade as exerting pressure on Serbia to
give up rights and claims on Kosovo. The tripartite endeavor carries the potential of
escalating tensions rather than reducing them and is not conducive to the lofty program
of the said Thessaloniki agenda.

Greece-Τurkey-Ιsrael

Stravon has not a lot to offer towards addressing the gathering storm in the Eastern
Mediterranean. We note the written response of Defense Minister Guler to the
parliamentary interpellation of an opposition CHP deputy (mid-August 2026), not
excluding even recourse to war to safeguard Turkey s interests in the Mediterranean. The
written testimony of mr Guler, became known just a few days after Turkey proclaimed
two marine environment protection parks at the mouth of the Dardanelles and around
Aksaz naval base stretching to the gulf of Antalya, both extending beyond respective
territorial sea and thus intruding into the non-declared potential Greek exclusive
economic zone, disregarding established rules of the Law of the Sea. Turkey moves
beyond the bounds of UNCLOS and Greece ruminates how to act/react.
Turkey feels emboldened in the aftermath of the Mecca Pact, having drawn its close
friend and erstwhile CENTO ally Pakistan into it and inducing Saudi Arabia, its
antagonist within Islamic Umma to it. Syria has evolved from a buffer state under Assad,
to a battle ground rather than a condominium between Turkey and Israel, the latter
paying a price for US change of policy vis a vis the Kurds of Rozawa. Israel has not
benefitted from the advent of former Al Nusra Islamic terrorists to Damascus. Under the
circumstances it is bound to count more on Greece s and Cyprus s moral and material
support as these two EU republics offer strategic depth and psychological relief. In the
present geopolitical set up Israel is called to revamp as pragmatically as possible links
with Egypt, key holder in the Read Sea and by necessity partner of Somalia and Eritrea.
With all that said, both Greece and Egypt got to favor important for European economies
operation of Suez Kanal and Port of Piraeus as transit route and outlet respectively for
made in China products.

STRAVON of Amaseia,
Athens, September 1, 2026