Friday, June 9, 2017
Romania surpassed Greece according to the adjusted value of the GDP in Q1 this year and has all the chances to close 2017 with a value of the GDP higher than that of Greece, becoming the biggest economy in the Balkans, excluding Turkey, after almost four decades of Greek supremacy.
The series of data published on Wednesday by the European Office of statistics, Eurostat, and consulted by News.ro shows that in Q1 of this year, the value of the GDP of Romania, adjusted depending on the seasonal influences, was of 44.2 billion euro, while the value of the Greek GDP was of43.96 billion euro.
It is for the first time since there are statistics series available regarding the quarterly GDP when the value of the adjusted GDP of Romania surpasses the value of the Greek GDP.
Similarly, the value of the adjusted GDP of Romania in Q1 got closer to the level of the Czech Republic, 44,85 billion euro and that of Portugal of 47,37 billion euro.
In 2016, Romania had a GDP of 169,6 billion euro,under the level of that of the Czech Republic (174,4 billion euro), Greece (175,9 billion euro) and Portugal (184,9 billion euro), states which have between 10 and 11 million inhabitants according to the revised series published by Eurostat.
The three states are the only ones that Romania can surpass in the next years according to the value of the GDP, the main indicator used at the level of the world to measure the dimension of an economy.
In non-adjusted data against seasonal influences, the value of the GDP of Romania was bigger than that of the Greek GDP in the last quarter of 2016 (50.8 billion euro vs.44,2 billion euro) but lower in Q1 of 2017 (35,3 billion euro vs.40.3 billion euro) but the figures are less relevant due to the volatility of the Romanian economy by comparison to the more mature economies.
Thus, in 2016, for unadjusted value, the Romanian GDP of Q4 was bigger by 56% against the GDP value of Q1 if 32,6 billion euro, while the difference was only 18% in the case of Greece.
According to the economists, Romania could surpass Greece in 2017 according to the value of GDP and in the years to come it could surpass the economies of the Czech Republic and Portugal getting from the 17th place to the 14th (or13th after Brexit) place among the economies of the EU.
Greece surpassed Romania according to the value of the GDP in the 1970’s according to some estimates, as the series regarding the value of the Romanian GDP exist starting with 1987.
According to the data of the World Bank in 1989, the last year of communist regime, Romania had a GDP of 42,1 billion dollars, half the level of Greece, which had 79.2 billion dollars that same year.
The difference was reduced after the fall of communism but it was still significant for two decades. In 2008, the historic peak for the Greek economy the Greek GDP was 242 billion euro with 70% higher than the Romanian GDP of the same year, of 142.4 billion euro.
Later, Greece got into a long period of recession, and the value of the gross GDP of the country was reduced by 27% between 2008 and 2016 as a result of the crisis of debts.
During the same period, despite the crisis and the recession of 2009 -2010, the Romanian GDP increased by 19%.
Besides Romania and Greece and excluding Turkey (which controls only a small portion of the Balkans with the biggest part in Asia), the other states of the Balkans have smaller economies.
Thus, Bulgaria had in 2016 a GDP of 47.4 billion euro and the next, Serbia has a much smaller economy with a value of 34 billion euro.
For 2017, the National Commission for Prognosis(CNP) estimates that the Romanian GDP will get at 182,8 billion euro, and for 2020 they estimate a level of the GDP of 229.4 billion euro.
The estimates rely on economic growth rhythm of over 5% per year for the next years which are considered non-realistic by independent economists.
http://actmedia.eu/daily/romania-surpassed-greece-according-to-the-gdp-adjusted-value-in-q1/69871
