The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, along with the escalating strikes between Israel and Iran, are reshaping the geopolitical realities of the Middle East. These crises are redefining the regional strategic landscape, posing critical tests to American leadership and its capacity to resolve such conflicts. The future regional balance of power will largely depend on the outcomes of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as other regional hotspots transformed by ongoing hostilities.
As part of the preparations for the 11th Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate (ADSD), convened by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC) from November 10-12, 2024, experts participating in the ADSD outline their interventions on how these conflicts are altering the regional landscape.
Resetting the New Balance of Power in the Middle East
October 7 has fundamentally reshaped the regional strategic landscape. It has done so by:
1) Reviving the Palestinian issue as a central axis in regional politics;
2) Escalating the direct confrontation between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah;
3) Testing American leadership and its capacity to resolve regional crises; and
4) Complicating Israel’s relations with the Arab world and Turkiye.
While Israel’s effort to restore deterrence and security remain uncertain, its ability and willingness to inflict pain on its enemies at all costs has put Iran and the “axis of resistance” on notice, forcing them onto the defensive.
The emergence of a new regional balance of power will depend on the outcome of the Gaza conflict and whether it is possible to:
1) Establish a credible path for Gaza’s reconstruction and a broader roadmap toward a Palestinian state;
2) Implement US plans for restoring stability on the Lebanon-Israel border;
3) Achieve progress in US-Iran negotiations regarding the nuclear issue; and
4) Determine the fate of the Netanyahu government in Israel.
* Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.