– Praise belongs to President Trump for effectively intervening in the hostilities
Israel – Iran, imposing a cease fire (albeit shaky) face saving for both belligerents.
– In Ukraine things look different; Moscow aspires to a lasting peace settlement
while Kiev, bolstered by the European quadrate, France-Germany-Poland-UK,
insists on a temporary cessation of hostilities. Donald Trump, growing impatient,
demands from Pres. Putin to move on to wrapping up within 50 days an unspecified
peace deal which so far is not palatable by Russia. Omens are not good, as
exemplified in the understandings reached 3 days ago by FM Lavrov in North Korea.
Russia for the moment seems to be unperturbed in the face of deadline set by
Washington. There is a soft spot for Russian interests in the southern Caucasus, as
Baku seems to be distancing from Moscow. No doubt that on the level of grand
strategy Russian leadership feels beleaguered.
– In Syria, Israel s joy for departure of Assad s Baath regime, produces no placidity;
In Jerusalem they do work for a fragmented Syria from the Jazira in the north east
to the Golan Heights and the Suweyda in the south. This is another open wound for
Israel, to act as overlord of the Druze community in the face of Turkey s proxies
currently in power in Damascus.
– India, not an easy partner of USA, in the woolly QUAD, is not impressed by
Washington s fresh round of courting Pakistan. India, engages instead in a new
round of political consultations with China, a country heavily investing in Pakistan.
Under these circumstances the IMEEC transport project from India to Europe via
the Arabian Peninsula – bypassing the Suez Canal – appears to be a long shot.
– Enduring hiccup in the trans atlantic relations: while the consent of the NATO
members to raise by 2035 the defense expenditure to 5% of the respective GDP is
a time bomb for the social and agricultural policies of the EU with possibility of
severe tensions among the population, President Trump proceeds to exorbitantly
raise import tariffs, starting August 2025. Upon straining social cohesion and even
social peace in Europe, Washington strains anew the bonds between both sides of
north Atlantic. There is no other way for the US than to mellow, otherwise a reverse
Tea Party becomes anew a probability. The pragmatic POTUS shall see this.
– Gaza: the carnage does go nowhere. The Filistinians there are at the verge of
extinction. It is not only immoral but also for many reasons unrealistic to pursue a
massive expulsion, an ethnic cleansing of the local inhabitants. Revival and
extension of the Abrahamic Accords will not fly at the expense of the Gazans.
Prolongation of the military operations comes at a price for the IDF too. It is a pity
that the Arab League countries are reluctant in assuming responsibilities in the
wake of termination of Hamas preponderance.
Stravon of Amaseia,
Attica coast, July 17, 2025
Stravon: SUMMER TEMPEST
