By Sebastian Payne Financial Times
September 28, 2017
Explaining populist uprisings around the world has become the holy grail of political analysis. Thousands of words have been devoted to the blue-collar insurgency that propelled Donald Trump to the White House. The same goes for the anti-elite rhetoric that persuaded the British electorate to turn away from the EU. Now it is Germany’s turn. Although the campaign in the recent federal elections was considered to be dull and dry, the nativist Alternative for Germany broke through, picking up 12.5 per cent of the votes and 94 seats in the Bundestag. Angela Merkel may have gained a fourth term as chancellor but governing will be much trickier for her this time.
In his column today, Philip Stephens digs into the right (and wrong) lessons to be drawn from the German elections. Although the AfD broke through, he argues it was not an earthquake on the scale of Brexit or Donald Trump’s victory. The vast majority of German voters stuck to established parties. Nevertheless, something changed. Some argue that the “grand coalition” of centre-left parties stifled genuine debate. The consensual style of politics that has governed Germany until now has ensured stability and prosperity. But it has also contributed to the rise of fringe elements.
The challenge for mainstream politicians such as Ms Merkel is how to react and respond to the grievances of these voters. I discussed this question with Fred Studemann in our weekly FT and Cake video discussion. Our conclusion was that the German government will most likely turn inwards over the next few years to try to tackle these concerns. As Hajo Funke argued in an opinion piece this week, longstanding feelings of exclusion need to be addressed in order to address the growth of nationalism. Radical and rapid Eurozone reform, as proposed by French president Emmanuel Macron, is likely to stall – as is talk of Germany becoming the leader of the West. Germany, it turns out, is not immune to the febrile politics gripping the rest of the globe.
Further reading: Fu Ying, the chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, writes on America’s approach to the situation in North Korea. The Trump administration has taken great joy in pointing fingers at China for not doing enough to temper Kim Jong-un. Ms Fu argues that sanctions alone cannot solve the situation and the US must engage with North Korea. Although Donald Trump once advocated such an approach, the tweet-twitchy president might have moved beyond the talking phase.
Quote of the day
“Now where is the rally? Athens, super, we love Athens. And you are from . . . Golden Dawn, I don’t think Nigel’s worked with you before has he? So tell me a bit about yourselves. You don’t like immigrants? No, that shouldn’t be a problem. Or gays, I see. Well that’s not a core Farage policy but it won’t be a deal-breaker.”
Robert Shrimsley imagines what it is like to be Nigel Farage’s booking agent
What you’ve been saying
Yellen is right to sound the alarm on inflation – Joel Solkoff:
“The number one raw material in the production of food is petroleum. Despite reports of food surpluses in the developed world, international grain reserves will be insufficient protection were crops currently in the ground to fail.”
Comment from Old School Canuck on The world’s hopes rest with America’s generals:
“In my view, the generals will be unable to stop Mr. Trump. The precipitous and confrontational approach is his to maintain or abandon–given his record, I doubt that any sound advice that does not accord with his own view of how the world ought to be will be dismissed out of hand.”
How privatisation failed a natural public good – Guy Standing:
The fact that Thames Water, a privatised foreign-owned monopoly, has been found guilty of pouring 34,000 tonnes of untreated sewage into our national river, and had its wrists slapped, is not a regulatory failure. It is a failure of privatisation. Private corporations will always put the interests of their shareholders first, and those of the public and the environment a distant second
